Why a wetter Europe does not necessarily mean more hydropower

Europe was around seven per cent wetter than average in 2023 – during the world’s hottest year.

Hot air holds more moisture, which increases precipitation and can cause widespread flooding. A third of rivers across Europe exceeded a ‘high’ flood threshold last year, according to the latest data from the EU’s climate agency. REPORT.

In some areas, fuller rivers strengthened the hand of a renewable resource: hydropower. The potential for run-of-river hydropower generation was above average across most of Europe for the year as a whole, Copernicus says.

With this form of hydropower, a portion of the river is diverted through a canal or stock to turn a turbine and produce electricity.

But does a wetter Europe necessarily lead to more hydropower? Here’s what the experts say.

Will Europe be wetter due to climate change?

First, is the trend of wet weather in Europe expected to continue?

According to climate scientists, extreme precipitation is expected to increase with global warming in most of Europe, with the exception of the Mediterranean. There will be more precipitation during northern European winters and less in Mediterranean summers.

This mixed picture emerged last year, with Spain, Portugal and southern France drier than average.

Increased rainfall and flooding is just one consequence of the disruption of our water cycle. or 1 in 500 year drought hit Europe in 2022, damaging hydropower production.

Neither extreme is good for run-of-river hydropower. Low-flow conditions mean there is too little water to generate enough electricity, while flood events risk damaging equipment.

But, explains Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) scientist Shaun Harrigan, “in regions and seasons where river flow increases moderately, then there would be an increase in hydropower generation potential.”

So this could mean more run-of-river hydropower – the kind most directly linked to climate variability – in parts of north-west Europe.

Which European countries have the most hydropower plants?

According to the International Hydropower Association (IHA), the European hydropower network has delivered 637.23 terawatt hours (TWh) of renewable energy in 2023. This is enough to cover around 163.4 million European households.

French and Portuguese utilities Électricité de France (EDF) and Energias de Portugal (EDP) are the “big hitters” in Europe, while the UK has recently committed to developing more pumped hydro (SHP).

The PSH is described as the largest in the world BATTERIES. It pumps water from a lower source to an upper reservoir and releases it through a turbine during times of high demand for electricity. And it is this technology that the industry is pinning most of its hopes on.

“The biggest challenges for the European network are the modernization of [existing] plants and the potential for their conversion to pumped storage facilities to support the management of a flexible grid powered by a mix of hydro, wind and solar power,” said an IHA spokesperson.

Although there is little potential left for run-of-the-river systems, they say, as in the Danube River, the time is ripe for SHP growth. Austria is considered a leader in the construction of these water batteries. In Albania, Norwegian energy giant Statkraft is planning to expand its hydropower fleet on the Devoll River Cascade, adding a new PSH facility.

Can hydropower plants withstand the worst floods?

In August last year, days of heavy rain overwhelmed the Braskereidfoss hydroelectric plant in Norway’the mighty river Glåma. Its concrete dam partially collapsed, leading to further flooding and the displacement of about 5,000 people downstream.

But IHA claims that hydropower is one of the most climate-resilient forms of electricity.

“In many locations, increased water flow can be better managed through electricity infrastructure such as hydropower, thanks to its water retention capabilities,” an IHA spokesperson tells Euronews Green.

“Not only are most structures durable for many decades, most dams are built for flood and drought control plus irrigation.”

Modernization is essential, they add, as “a more flexible factory is a more resilient factory.”

In the case of the Norwegian power plant, the hatches that were supposed to open automatically if too much water accumulated behind the dam did not work as designed.

With climate extremes increasing in such a variable way across Europe, the improvements required may differ even between the same type HYDROPOWER plants in different places.

“Modern technologies such as digitization, improved forecasting and satellite monitoring, hybridization and variable speed turbines will help the sector navigate extreme meteorological conditions,” explains the IHA spokesperson.

“Facilities equipped with larger reservoirs capable of storing significant volumes of water, such as reservoir and pumped storage hydropower, will play a crucial role in mitigating the effects of extreme events such as drought and flooding.”

How can hydropower plants survive?

While there may be more potential for ‘water batteries’, particularly in northwestern Europe, not everyone is convinced that it is the best path to clean energy.

Environmentalists are concerned about the impact of new dams on Europe’s waterways, noting that the ecosystems they hit are not renewable.

“Europe has the most fragmented rivers in the world,” Claire Baffert, Senior Water Policy Advisor at WWF Europe. before he told us, explaining that migratory fish are particularly affected. “And that’s because of all the dams that have been built for hydroelectric plants.”

To help complement the green credentials of hydropower projects, the Hydropower Sustainability Alliance has developed a global certification scheme that the industry can audit itself.

Plans should avoid negative impacts on biodiversity, for example, and consider water supplies.

However, even the best laid plans are being projected into an increasingly unstable future.

“Climate change has a profound impact on the water cycle,” says C3S scientist Harrigan.

“While we may be able to limit or even reverse a disruption, some changes may be irreversible—we still don’t fully understand the consequences of pushing the water cycle into uncharted territory.”